Trust, tolerance and growth - new approaches to finding causal links

It is not a given that an economy will function well and contribute to increased prosperity. In recent years, economists have come to realize that laws and regulations are important and influence people’s willingness and ability to behave productively. “Soft” factors such as morality and norms, as well as social attitudes like trust and tolerance, are also studied. Honesty and reliability, for example, can stimulate economic growth by enabling innovative risk-taking and smooth transactions. This project specifically examines how cultural and social factors of this kind have economic significance. Particular emphasis is placed on attempting to identify causal relationships—that is, what causes what in society. For example, there is strong evidence that social trust leads to economic growth, but it is also conceivable that economic growth fosters trust in a society. Methodologically, it is often difficult to determine which is the case, but it is of great importance to clarify the nature of the causal relationship, not least to be able to provide more precise advice to economic policymakers on how they should design policy. In this project, we build upon the research we conducted with funding from the Torsten Söderberg Foundation in 2015–2016. In three subprojects, we explore how individuals’ norms are formed and how norms influence their choices, as well as what the relationships between norms, institutions, and economic outcomes look like at the national level. Within each subproject, we use a newly developed method that makes it possible to establish causal relationships.